Evaluation of the MACC NRT product w.r.t. satellite observations

Bias and standard deviation of the MACC IFS-MOZ forecast run f7kn , the BASCOE free model run CFF_q01.05 and the NRT analysis IFS-MOZ f93i w.r.t. ACEFTS satellite data, for the period 15 September - 15 October 2009, for 5 latitude bands.

The above figure shows the global results for the bias and standard deviation of the free model runs IFS-MOZART forecast (f7kn) and BASCOE FMR (CFF_q01.05) on the one hand and the MACC NRT analysis IFS-MOZART (f93i) on the other hand versus ACEFTS satellite profiles for the Antarctic ozone hole period 2009.

First conclusions:

  • Outside the South Pole region, both BASCOE CTM and IFS-MOZART overestimate (-20%) stratospheric O3 in the lower stratosphere and underestimate (+20%) it in the upper stratosphere for the 2009 Antarctic ozone hole period
  • IFS-MOZART is currently unable to simulate/forecast polar ozone depletion
  • The comparison with f93i shows the impact of the assimilation on the model output. It illustrates that, even though the analysis can simulate the total ozone columns quite well, the vertical distribution of the analysis is still wrong (bias ~ 20%) in the South Pole vortex where the IFS-MOZART model (f7kn) is too biased.